One of the biggest controversies, both internally and externally, surrounding the Mexican military and least understood is its small tactical fighter squadron of three Northrop F5e and F5f fighters. The two F5e and one F5f left from an original fleet of 12 aircraft is sufficient to meet the airspace needs for México considering the geopolitics surrounding México and its geography. Purchased in the 1980’s, the second-generation Northrop F5 fighter squadron was established to provide defense for the newly discovered offshore oil fields in the Bay of Campeche.
After World War II there were two countries that were dominant global military powers, the Soviet Union and the United States. Today’s Russia emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. A third confederation of countries, the British Empire, could not recover fast enough after the war, leaving the U.S. and the Soviet Union as the two global superpowers.
A superpower, in the context of geopolitics, is a country with unmatched economic, military and nuclear capability that tilts the global balance of power in their favor. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States became the world’s only superpower in terms of its economy and military.
Although the U.S. remains the global superpower today, China has emerged as a challenger to America’s stranglehold on its superpower status through its growing economy and military capabilities. Interestingly, although Russia is no longer a superpower, its military resources remain challenging on the global stage and its embrace of asymmetric strategies allows it to influence geopolitics across the globe. On the global stage, México’s economy has turned the country into an emerging middle power with its growing economy allowing it greater global geopolitical influence.
In recent years, México has emerged as an understated but significant player in global geopolitics through its important position in global trade. It is through its economy, not its military, that México influences the world’s geopolitics.
It is through this lens that México’s air force needs are better understood.
After World War II, México continued to grow its air force capabilities entering the jet age through its deployment of 15 de Havilland Vampire Mk. III jet fighters and 15 Lockheed T-33 trainers in the early 1960’s. The Vampires were deployed first, making them México’s first jet fighters. Both were deployed by México in response to the 1958 Guatemalan conflict when the Mexican military realized that it was ill-equipped to secure its southern border.
The short-lived conflict between Guatemala and México over a dispute over Mexican fishing vessels strafed by Guatemalan P-51 Mustang fighters lasted less than a year and helped to drive Guatemala into a 36-year-long civil war. Then Guatemalan president, Miguel Ydígoras Fuentes recently installed by a Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)-backed coup used the controversy of Mexican fishermen fishing in Guatemalan waters to distract from growing political pressures in Guatemala. After ending the short-lived conflict with México, Guatemala erupted into civil war.
Guatemala ceased being a security issue for México in late 1996 after the civil war in Guatemala had ended, taking the requirement to react to a southern aerial threat off the table for México.
Today’s small fleet is not designed for air superiority but instead offers the Mexican military a platform to train pilots in high performance supersonic aircraft for when the need, likely after 2030, that México embarks upon upgrading its air force capabilities. As México continues to evolve into a middle power, its national security strategy will also evolve, not to project military power but to protect the country from the internal threat of drug-cartel insurgencies, more so than the illicit drug lawlessness of the 1980’s through the mid-2000s.
México’s upgrade of its air force will continue to center around asymmetric warfare for both internal control and defense against external threats based on today’s geopolitical risks. To the south of México there are limited militaries with limited force projection capabilities threatening Mexican sovereignty. Unless China or Russia, or any other larger military with force projection capabilities were to establish a beachhead south of the Mexican border, México faces little threat to its sovereignty from its southern border.
México’s offshore oil fields, a smaller part of México’s economy, are well protected by the Mexican Navy that has dramatically evolved over the years since the F5 fighter squadron was first deployed. The Campeche oil fields account for about 80% of México’s oil production but oil has dropped to around 10% of México’s total exports.
In the north lies the largest military in the world, the United States military. Even if México were to purchase 12, 24 or 50 high performance air superiority fighters and embark on bolstering its conventional military, it could never match the U.S. military. The difference for México that other countries fearing a U.S. invasion do not face is geography. The United States military does not need to position military forces for force projection capabilities to invade México. It does not need to reposition aircraft carriers or troop transport. It simply needs to cross the border.
In keeping with the asymmetric strategy of the Mexican Air Force, Mexican Secretary of National Defense General Ricardo Trevilla Trejo announced last week that the Mexican Air Force will be purchasing 10 multi-purpose military helicopters, a large military transport and six tactical reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to bolster México air defense and logistical capabilities.
It is against this reality that the Mexican military keeps its military doctrine around waging asymmetric warfare both for internal control and external defense. When looking closely at the Mexican militaries’ inventory and tactics it is clear that asymmetric warfare is central to its operations, including those for defending against a superpower invader. A fleet of air superiority fighters would be costly and provide little protection against an invasion from the north.
Cover photo: Two Fuerza Aérea Mexicana (FAM) Northrop F-5E Tiger II supersonic fighters flying over Santa Lucia, México. Courtesy, Secretaria de la Defensa Nacional (SEDENA)
