Cuba, who for years has been facing a worsening energy crisis, has come to rely on México for its oil needs after the Trump administration removed Nicolás Maduro from the country. Venezuela was the key oil supplier to Cuba last year. This month, México became the main oil supplier to Cuba to help it meet its energy requirements.
On January 11, the Trump administration proclaimed that “there will be no more oil or money going to Cuba – zero.” However, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said at the time that México would be allowed to continue supplying oil to Cuba. Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum, also said that Mexican oil to Cuba is “humanitarian aid.”
But political pressure from the ongoing USMCA trade negotiations and the continued threats of a U.S. unilateral military strikes on drug cartel infrastructure is forcing the Mexican government to rethink its oil deliveries to Cuba. According to a Reuters exclusive, the Mexican government is weighing three options for Cuban oil – halting oil to Cuba, reducing deliveries or continuing to provide the oil it has been providing.
Reuters reported that during the telephone call between Trump and Sheinbaum last week, where Sheinbaum reassured the country that U.S. military action had been “ruled out,” the question of Mexican oil to Cuba had been raised. Reuters’ reporting on the oil conversation has not been independently confirmed.
According to Reuters, Trump “did not directly urge” México to end oil shipments to Cuba during the call.
However, Reuters reports that three sources told them that Mexican officials are growing concerned about the growing presence of U.S. Navy Northrup Grumman MQ-4C Triton drones seemingly following Mexican oil tankers delivering oil to Cuba.
But the Mexican oil is not enough to meet Cuban needs. Since the ouster of Maduro, Cuba has started looking to Africa for its oil. At least one tanker, the Mia Grace, was expected to reach Cuba sometime in early February after departing Lomé Togo on January 19. But mid-Atlantic, the oil tanker appears to have changed course and is now headed to the Dominican Republic according to satellite tracking information reported by Marine Traffic.
It is unclear why the oil tanker changed destination, but Cuba’s ambassador to Colombia accused the U.S. of “international piracy” on Saturday as the Cuban energy crisis worsens since oil to Cuba has almost halted after the Trump administration stopped Venezuelan oil to the island.
The Trump administration is now considering ramping up the pressure on Cuba to drive regime change by imposing a complete oil blockade on the country. Secretary of State Marco Rubio supports a Cuban regime change though economic pressure on the island.
Although the Sheinbaum administration has said that Mexican oil shipments are humanitarian aid, one of the reasons behind the oil to Cuba is because the Mexican government fears a Cuban migrant crisis if the Cuban government collapses. Sheinbaum is already facing pressure from Trump on two fronts, a unilateral military strike against the drug cartels on Mexican sold and the upcoming USMCA Joint Review required by July 1, 2026.
México became the leading trading partner for U.S. imports and exports in August making the trade agreement review essential for the Mexican economy. Sheinbaum must now balance the pressure from the Trump administration by deciding on how to deal with what could amount to a Cuban humanitarian crisis further pressuring the Mexican economy and people.
Adding another wrinkle to the oil embroglio are the payments for the Mexican oil which are reportedly made through an unofficial barter system where Cuba pays for Mexican oil through Cuban services – mainly Cuban doctors providing services in México.
Although the services-for-oil has not been documented, rumors about the arrangement have been around for years. Around 3,600 Cuban doctors have been working in México since 2002. But since 2018 the Cuban doctor program has been criticized by the United Nations (UN) as forced labor because the doctors are not paid directly, but rather the payment for their services goes directly to the Cuban government.
Cover photograph credit: Oil tanker Merlion, August 25, 2020, Fredrick Filix.
