Although the results of the California gubernatorial primary are still in the process of being certified, it has become reasonably certain, at this point, that Democrat Xavier Becerra will be facing off against Republican and former Fox News personality Steve Hilton in the general election in November.
This wasn’t exactly the outcome that many had expected.
Throughout much of his 2026 campaign, Becerra struggled to gain traction in California’s crowded primary race for governor.
In an article featured in SFGATE in mid-March, for example, Becerra was identified as one of the “lingering Democrats” who were mired in single digits at the time. Becerra, the former California attorney general and health and human services secretary in the Biden administration, had registered a mere 5% of likely voter support according to a Politico poll cited in the article.
Becerra was presumably one of the Democratic candidates who Rusty Hicks, the chair of the California Democratic Party, had in mind when he posted an open letter in early March urging Democratic gubernatorial candidates to “honestly assess the viability of their candidacy” before the March 6th filing deadline. In the letter, Hicks expressed concern over the possibility that Republicans could effectively “lock out” Democratic candidates under California’s “jungle” primary system, which advances the top two candidates regardless of party affiliation. Hicks urged Democratic candidates without a plausible path to victory in the general election to refrain from filing for the primary election. He also advised Democratic candidates who did choose to proceed to be prepared to suspend their campaign and “endorse another candidate on or before April 15th” if their respective campaigns “did not show meaningful progress towards winning the Primary Election.”
In a similar vein, Antonio Villaraigosa, the former mayor of Los Angeles and fellow gubernatorial candidate, made it explicitly clear who he thought should withdraw from the primary. In a press release posted on his campaign website, Villaraigosa called upon Becerra specifically to withdraw from the gubernatorial primary, citing primary simulation data showing that Becerra’s candidacy increased the likelihood of the dreaded Democratic “lock out” scenario in the general election.
Becerra, of course, ignored these calls to withdraw, and then something interesting happened. Becerra gradually started rising in the polls.
By mid-April, in the aftermath of Eric Swalwell’s stunning downfall and subsequent withdrawal from the race, Becerra started polling slightly better at 10% and managed to clear the polling threshold to participate in the gubernatorial debate scheduled for later that month.
Becerra’s improvement in the polls was also accompanied by a significant spike in fundraising. As noted on his campaign website, Becerra “raised more than $1 million on ActBlue” in the days following Swalwell’s withdrawal. This made him the biggest single fundraiser on the platform in the nation during that interval. This development was particularly noteworthy because ActBlue is generally associated with smaller, individual donations, and the spike in donations may have been a reflection of Becerra’s growing support among California voters.
But, even at this point, Becerra was still trailing a number of candidates including Republican Steve Hilton who was polling at 17%, as well as Republican Chad Bianco and Democrat Tom Steyer who were both polling at 14%.
It wasn’t until mid-May, just a couple of weeks before the primary, that Becerra finally managed to emerge as the front runner polling at 19% according to an Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey.
And, by May 30th, just days before the primary, Becerra had managed to establish a commanding lead polling at 28% according to the final Emerson survey of the California gubernatorial primary. The same survey showed Democrat Tom Steyer polling at 22% and Republican Steve Hilton polling at 21%.
By June 5th, the Associated Press had reported that Becerra, who had initially trailed Hilton, had secured the top position in the primary, and, by June 9th, multiple sources were projecting that Becerra would be facing Hilton in the general election.
In the immediate aftermath of the primary, political observers struggled to precisely explain the factors that led to Becerra’s unlikely political resurrection. One Los Angeles Times analysis attributed his unexpected ascendancy in the primary to the perception among voters that he was a “moderate” and a “safe” choice. The San Francisco Chronicle suggested that concern about the prospect of Democrats being excluded from the general election “pressured voters to coalesce around high-polling candidates, which benefited Becerra, who was high in the polls as Californians began voting.”
That same Chronicle analysis also acknowledged the possibility that voters may have supported Becerra because they were looking for a candidate willing “to take on Trump.” As noted in the piece, voters may have perceived “Becerra’s tenure as California attorney general, during which he sued Trump 120 times, as a sign he was up for the job.”
Becerra will undoubtedly be operating from a position of strength in the general election. The first post-primary poll, released on June 11th by the UC Berkeley Institute for Governmental Studies, “found that Becerra leads Republican Steve Hilton by over 20 percentage points among registered voters.” And, as noted in a recent Politico article, Steyer’s failure to qualify for the general election will allow Becerra to avoid “a costly and bitter intra-party battle against a deep-pocketed opponent.”
It also appears as if the Democratic establishment in California is finally coalescing around Becerra’s candidacy. Just hours after the Associated Press determined that Hilton had secured the second spot in the primary, Becerra received the endorsements of key California Democratic leaders including Gov. Gavin Newsom and Sen. Adam Schiff, along with former primary rivals like Steyer and former Rep. Katie Porter, among others.
But just because he has a distinct advantage in deep blue California doesn’t mean the general election is going to be easy for Becerra. In fact, it’s likely to be a war. Becerra checks many of the boxes that will make him a prime target for Trump and the broader MAGA movement. To begin with, he’s a Californian and a member of the California Democratic establishment. He was also a prominent member of the Biden administration and a determined Trump opponent as California attorney general.
Most notably though, as a Mexican American and the son of Mexican immigrants, Becerra represents the precise demographic threat that Trump and MAGA have spent close to a decade demonizing and warning against. If he is able to prevail, however, Becerra will become the first Mexican American governor of California “since 1875, when California was briefly led by Romualdo Pacheco, who was born in the territory when it was still part of Mexico.”
In the aftermath of the primary, Hilton, in an apparent reference to the looming general election, warned that Becerra has “no idea what’s about to hit him.” But a war with Trump and MAGA may be exactly what Becerra is looking for.
This article was co-published with El Paso News.
