An election win yesterday in Miami suggests that the important Cuban vote for the Republicans have soured on Donald Trump eroding the electoral chances for the Republicans in 2026. Miami voters elected the first Democrat in decades and the first non-Latina for mayor on Tuesday. Democrat Eileen Higgins defeated Trump-backed Emilio González in Tuesday’s runoff election with 60% of the vote.
That Higgins is both a Democrat and a non-Latina is significant in Miami where the Cuban vote is significant, especially for the Republicans. When asked in October 2024 if they would vote for Donald Trump in November, 60% of likely Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade County said they would vote for Trump.
The Florida International University poll has been tracking the Cuban vote since 1991. According to Sebastian Arcos, of the Cuban Research Institute, Cuban Americans have “traditional inclinations toward the Republican Party and strong support for Donald Trump’s policies.”
Trump won the 2024 election with the support of Hispanic voters. The largest group of Latino voters in Miami-Dade are Cuban Americans. Arcos told South Florida NBC 6’s that “Cubans have escaped a communist regime, and for Cubans and Cuban Americans the dramatic shift of the Democratic Party to the left concerns everybody, because it reminds them of what happened in Cuba in 1959.”
Cuban American support for Republicans has been unwavering for decades. Since the 1990’s, the pervasive stereotype of the Cuban American vote is that they hold “extreme and almost rabid support for Republicans.”
That is until Miami’s mayoral election results trickled in yesterday.
González, who had the support of Trump and other high-profile Republicans like Rick Scott (R-FL) and Ted Cruz (R-TX), faced backlash from the voters as he became the “MAGA mayor” representing Trump’s anti-immigrant agenda that hit close to home for many voters in Miami-Dade, including many Cuban Americans.
Higgins capitalized on the Cuban American regret for their support of Trump, calling out Trump’s immigration policies as “cruel,” and promising voters that once elected she would try to overturn the city’s agreement to work closely with immigration agents in arresting immigrants.
Higgin’s win adds another loss to Trump’s agenda with several of the candidates he was endorsed losing to progressive Democrats in recent elections.
The telling issue, especially among the Cuban American voters is that they seem less concerned about a shifting Democratic Party to the left, even if it reminds them of Cuba in the 1959s, when they see the Republican anti-immigration agenda.
The Republicans fought to keep themselves in control of the Miami municipality to stave off important Democratic wins ahead of the 2026 elections. They lost. Yesterday’s election results suggest that the Republicans have lost an important Hispanic voter demographic going into the 2026 elections after several key losses in recent elections.
